Uzupelnianie portfela dzis

[A Sz1]

Witam,

ten tydzien spedzilem na analizowaniu tego, jak bardziej zdywersyfikowac swoj portfel. Zdecydowalem sie na zakup ropy Crude, nominiowanej w USD. Kupowalem we wczorajszym dolku. W zasadzie zdecydowalem sie na Crude, zamiast srebra. Nie mam Ag w portfelu, ale mam pozycje w Au, Pt i Pd i srednia w Crude. Nie chcialem do tego dokladac jeszcze jednego metalu, bo byloby to chyba wkladanie jajek do tego samego koszyka. A moze sie myle?
Tak czy inaczej, jestem pozytywnie nastawiony do Crude w srednim i dluzszym okresie.

Witam,

ten tydzien spedzilem na analizowaniu tego, jak bardziej zdywersyfikowac swoj portfel. Zdecydowalem sie na zakup ropy Crude, nominiowanej w USD. Kupowalem we wczorajszym dolku. W zasadzie zdecydowalem sie na Crude, zamiast srebra. Nie mam Ag w portfelu, ale mam pozycje w Au, Pt i Pd i srednia w Crude. Nie chcialem do tego dokladac jeszcze jednego metalu, bo byloby to chyba wkladanie jajek do tego samego koszyka. A moze sie myle?
Tak czy inaczej, jestem pozytywnie nastawiony do Crude w srednim i dluzszym okresie.

Z innej beczki, ciekawe spostrzezenia zauwazylem w newsletterze Howarda Ruff`a, o calkowitym koszcie wyprodukowania 1 uncji zlota:

The costs of gold production vary among producers. I examined the production in ounces and the accounting costs of production for six large producers for the years 2005-2007. I obtained the total costs as reported on income statements and divided them by the production in ounces. I found that those costs were $570-$600 an ounce. Another source confirms my estimate with a number of $591 an ounce. That is not the total cost. The cost of the capital should be figured in. That raises costs to $700 to $750 an ounce, using a 10 percent cost of equity capital. The CFO of the largest gold producer (Barrick) estimates the cost of production at $700-$800 an ounce ‘easily.’ ‘To us that’s the long-term break-even cost to the industry…below $700/oz to $800/oz long term, the industry doesn’t make money.’ I conclude that an estimate of $750 an ounce for t! he total production cost of gold is not unreasonable.”

So if gold did descend below the magic $750 production cost, producers would, yes, tend to stop producing.

Production has been anemic as it is, even with gold topping $1,000 an ounce. In 2008, gold production followed a multi-year swoon, falling by 88 tonnes (a tonne equals 2,204 lbs) even while mining production costs rose 24 percent. If gold fell below $750, producers would likely just sit on their mines and let the world fight over the above-ground supply.

Now, granted, the actual industrial use of gold isn’t so great that it alone would ever drive the precious metal’s price to the moon. Still, if production halted at $750 gold, the law of supply and demand would kick in fairly quickly and, unless the economy were completely and convincingly fixed, there’d always be nations, investors and collectors eager to add more gold to their holdings.

pozdrawiam,

Plissken

[Author]

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